Aug 022011
 

This is the 2nd of a 2-part attack on some myths about the baby boom and the impact of baby boomers:
Part 1: The myth of the UK baby-boom
Part 2: This article: The myth of a baby-boom-led housing crisis

Once again, I am using David Willetts’ book “The Pinch: how the baby boomers took their children’s future – and why they should give it back“. In “The myth of the UK baby-boom” I quoted from David Willetts’ book and showed that he didn’t understand the true nature of the UK’s baby-booms. David Willetts isn’t the only person promoting these myths; many other books and articles state similar views. But this is the one book about baby boomers that I have bought and read, and I have already commented at length at Amazon.

David Willetts’ thesis

David Willetts asserts that actions taken by baby boomers have so distorted the housing market that young people have much more trouble getting onto the housing ladder than the baby boomers did. He showed the numbers in the form of a table, (Table 1 in Chapter 4), which doesn’t have the clarity of a graph. So here is the last row in his table converted to graphical format, overlaid with his definition of the baby-boom.

Net housing wealth, David Willetts versionHe said (Chapter 4) : “The table shows that half of all [this] wealth … belongs to the the baby-boomers and only about … 15 per cent to everyone under 44″. I thought at first that this implies that a huge number of young people just haven’t got a start on the housing ladder. The over-65s are ahead, then baby boomers dominate.

But his definition of “Net Housing Wealth” is “Gross Housing Wealth” (price of bricks and mortar) minus “Mortgages”. This is not very useful: according to this definition, a person who has a house with a 100% mortgage is indistinguishable in this table from a person who has no house at all. This says nothing about how many have got onto the housing ladder. Yet one of the themes of the book is how hard it is for young people to get onto the housing ladder, because the baby boomers have shut them out of the housing market!

Bricks & mortar prices

Here is the first row in the table, the ownership of bricks and mortar ignoring mortgages. This time I’ve overlaid it with my “Two baby-boom” model. (Caution: the width of the baby-boom 1 column is based on the number of years of that boom, not the housing wealth of that cohort).

Gross housing wealthEven the under-35s collectively have made a start. My first house, bought when I was 28, was vastly inferior to my current house and hardly worth a quarter of it. Yet these under-35s have about half the gross housing wealth of any one of the later 10-year groups. In fact, the under-35s may have a comparable gross housing wealth to baby-boom 1.

Mortgages

What the middle row of the table shows is that remaining mortgages differ vastly as we get older.

Mortgage valuesIn other words: “young people haven’t paid off their mortgages, whereas to a large extent the 55-64 and especially the 65+ groups have done so”. Wow! So people nearing retirement and after retirement tend to have paid off their mortgages, while younger people haven’t yet done so! Who would have thought it?

Net housing value revisited

Here is the last row of his table again, this time overlaid with the “Two baby-boom” model. (Remember: subtract the value in the yellow “Mortgage” graph above from the value in the blue “Gross Housing Wealth” graph above to get this graph).

Net housing wealth, 2 baby-boomsI doubt if David Willetts would have been so keen to emphasise this version, because it shows that the cohort of baby-boom 2 doesn’t have all that much net housing wealth, in spite of their greater numbers in each of their 10-year groups. Although there are rather more baby boomers in total in the “Two baby-boom” model, this greater number of baby boomers actually has significantly less than half of the net housing wealth.

What Table 1 in Chapter 4 is really saying is “there isn’t a large difference in bricks and mortar values (gross wealth) for the various age groups, but young people haven’t paid off their mortgages, whereas to a large extent people nearing retirement and especially those now retired have done so”.

Questions

I am prepared to accept that young people sometimes have a harder time getting started on the housing ladder than I had. But this table (see the blue graph) appears to show that many of them have got started. What are the counts of those houses, and what proportion of people have them?

The “Two baby-boom” model shows that there are actually more baby boomers than assumed, and that their average age is less. (See: “The myth of the UK baby-boom“). Some of the people (born from 1966 to 1974) who were previously assumed to be suffering in contrast an older generation of baby boomers (born 1945 to 1965) are actually baby boomers themselves! But do they know it?

Is the concept of “baby-boomers” irrelevant? Do we really mean “people born during a period of high birth-rate” (a true baby-boom), or alternatively  “people born during 1945 to 1965” (which may simply mean “people currently near retirement and nothing to do with the birth-rate when they were born“)?

Or is the problem to do with longevity? Look at all the housing stock in the possession of the 65+ group in the above graphs: is it just taking much longer than previously for houses to become available to later generations? Or is the problem a combination of these?

See also

  154 Responses to “The myth of a baby-boom-led housing crisis”

  1. brand pregabalin 150mg – purchase lyrica pill purchase pregabalin pills

  2. buy clomiphene online – buy clomid 100mg sale order cetirizine 5mg generic

  3. order desloratadine 5mg online – buy triamcinolone generic cost triamcinolone

  4. order cytotec 200mcg generic – buy prednisolone 10mg order synthroid 75mcg generic

  5. free shipping viagra – sildenafil 50mg tablets neurontin 800mg pills

  6. buy cialis 20mg online – order cenforce 50mg for sale buy cenforce 100mg online

  7. brand diltiazem 180mg – order zyloprim 300mg online cheap buy acyclovir 800mg pills

  8. order hydroxyzine 10mg online cheap – atarax 10mg uk crestor 10mg generic

  9. zetia 10mg canada – buy zetia 10mg online cheap cost citalopram 40mg

  10. viagra pills – lisinopril 2.5mg usa purchase cyclobenzaprine generic

  11. cost sildenafil 50mg – viagra mail order tadalafil 20mg

  12. cost toradol – baclofen sale purchase baclofen online cheap

  13. colchicine canada – cheap inderal 20mg strattera price

  14. sildenafil dosage – purchase plavix generic clopidogrel for sale

  15. viagra australia – sildenafil pills 200mg sildenafil 50mg tablet

  16. nexium uk – promethazine buy online order promethazine without prescription

  17. What’s Happening i’m new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve found It positively useful and it has aided me out loads. I hope to contribute & help other users like its aided me. Great job.

  18. I am glad to be a visitor of this perfect blog !, appreciate it for this rare info!

  19. order cialis 10mg sale – Buy cialis in us cost tadalafil 10mg

  20. buy provigil 100mg for sale – modafinil 100mg brand best ed drug

  21. generic isotretinoin 20mg – zithromax uk buy azithromycin 500mg for sale

  22. lasix 40mg price – purchase doxycycline online cheap viagra 50mg pills for men

  23. buy tadalafil 10mg sale – purchase cialis sale order viagra 100mg sale

  24. I am glad to be a visitor on this website!, regards for this rare information!

  25. tadalafil 5mg without prescription – order coumadin 5mg online cheap order generic coumadin 2mg

  26. topiramate 200mg ca – order levofloxacin 250mg online sumatriptan 25mg sale

  27. Nice Post. It’s really a very good article. I noticed all your important points. Thanks.

  28. A good web site with interesting content, that’s what I need. Thank you for making this web site, and I will be visiting again. Do you do newsletters? I Can’t find it.

  29. buy avodart 0.5mg without prescription – dutasteride drug tadalafil 40mg pills

  30. However, it is virtually all done with tongues rooted solidly in cheeks, and everyone has absolutely nothing but absolutely love for his or her friendly neighborhood scapegoat. The truth is, he is not just a pushover. He is basically that special variety of person strong enough to take all of that good natured ribbing for exactly what it is.

  31. cheap sildenafil 50mg – viagra overnight cheap tadalafil for sale

  32. buy erectile dysfunction pills – prednisone 10mg uk prednisone 20mg canada

  33. You certainly deserve a round of applause for your post and more specifically, your blog in general. Very high quality material!

  34. purchase accutane generic – buy accutane sale buy amoxicillin without prescription

  35. I think I might disagree with some of your analysis. Are the figures solid?

  36. Hey just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your article seem to be
    running off the screen in Safari. I’m not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know.
    The design look great though! Hope you get the issue resolved soon. Kudos

  37. brand furosemide 40mg – zithromax tablet azithromycin 250mg usa

  38. With havin so much content and articles do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright
    violation? My blog has a lot of completely unique content I’ve
    either written myself or outsourced but it appears a
    lot of it is popping it up all over the web without my permission.
    Do you know any techniques to help stop content from being stolen? I’d genuinely appreciate it.

  39. There is definately a lot to know about this issue. I like
    all of the points you made.

  40. doxycycline 100mg canada – buy plaquenil sale aralen sale

  41. That is really fascinating, You’re an excessively skilled blogger. I’ve joined your rss feed and look forward to in the hunt for extra of your magnificent post. Additionally, I’ve shared your website in my social networks!

  42. Glad to be one of many visitants on this amazing site : D.

  43. You are my inhalation , I possess few web logs and very sporadically run out from to brand :(

  44. Substantially, the post is really the best on this laudable topic. I concur with your conclusions and will eagerly watch forward to your future updates.Just saying thanx will not just be enough, for the wonderful lucidity in your writing.

  45. You appear to know so much about this, and I see you’re a published author. Thanks

  46. My issues have been very similar, with my family. But, we made some different decisions. It’s complex.

  47. I’ve been browsing online more than 2 hours today, yet I never found any interesting article like yours.

    It’s pretty worth enough for me. In my view, if all web
    owners and bloggers made good content as you did,
    the web will be a lot more useful than ever before.

  48. I am really impressed with your writing skills as well as with the layout on your blog.
    Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself?
    Either way keep up the excellent quality writing, it is rare to see a
    nice blog like this one nowadays.

  49. Hello! I know this is kinda off topic but I’d figured I’d ask.

    Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing a blog post or vice-versa?
    My website discusses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I
    believe we could greatly benefit from each other.
    If you might be interested feel free to send me an e-mail.
    I look forward to hearing from you! Terrific blog by the way!

  50. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as
    though you relied on the video to make your point.

    You obviously know what youre talking about, why throw away
    your intelligence on just posting videos to your blog when you could be giving us something informative to
    read?

  51. Heya i am for the first time here. I found this board and
    I find It truly useful & it helped me out a lot. I hope to give something back
    and aid others like you aided me.

  52. That’s an awesome point

  53. buy tadalafil 5mg pills – Canadian healthcare cialis viagra 50mg pills for men

  54. provigil 200mg without prescription – sildenafil 150mg pills free shipping viagra

  55. I wanted to check up and let you know how, a great deal I cherished discovering your blog today. I might consider it an honor to work at my office and be able to utilize the tips provided on your blog and also be a part of visitors’ reviews like this. Should a position associated with guest writer become on offer at your end, make sure you let me know.

  56. where to buy ed pills online – prednisone 10mg for sale oral prednisone 20mg

  57. buy generic isotretinoin – brand celecoxib 200mg buy celecoxib 100mg online cheap

  58. purchase flomax sale – buy tamsulosin 0.4mg generic aldactone without prescription

  59. buy zocor pills – simvastatin for sale online online essay writing

  60. It’s a comprehensive, yet fast read.

  61. A wholly agreeable point of view, I think primarily based on my own experience with this that your points are well made, and your analysis on target.

  62. Dignity College of Healthcare online surgical technician training is far superior to other online Surgical Technician programs because it includes the training, exam review and national certification exams. Register with Confidence and attend a nationally accredited, but affordable program. In just 4 months, you can complete the surgical technician program from the comfort of your home without a loan on your neck. Enroll now at https://dignitycollegeofhealthcare.com/surgical-technician

  63. online casinos – help write my paper pay for assignments

  64. real casinos online no deposit – finasteride 5mg tablet order ampicillin online

  65. buy ciprofloxacin 1000mg generic – cipro pill buy tadalafil 20mg online cheap

  66. Clear, concise and easy to access.

  67. viagra over the counter – vardenafil 10mg canadian vardenafil online

  68. Definitely imagine that that you said. Your favourite justification appeared to
    be at the internet the easiest factor to take note of. I say to you, I definitely get irked even as folks
    consider concerns that they just don’t recognise about.
    You controlled to hit the nail upon the top
    and outlined out the entire thing with no need side effect , other people can take a signal.
    Will probably be again to get more. Thanks

  69. I do not even know how I finished up right here, however I believed this post used to be good.
    I don’t recognize who you are however definitely you’re going to a well-known blogger should you aren’t already.
    Cheers!

  70. You are my inhalation , I possess few web logs and very sporadically run out from to brand :(

  71. Simply wish to say the frankness in your article is surprising.

  72. Nice read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing some research on that. And he just bought me lunch as I found it for him smile Therefore let me rephrase that: Thank you for lunch!

  73. I don’t even understand how I finished up right here, however
    I assumed this post used to be good. I do not recognize who you
    might be however certainly you are going to a well-known blogger for those
    who aren’t already. Cheers!

  74. This article will help the internet viewers for creating new web
    site or even a blog from start to end.

  75. Asking questions are really nice thing if you are not understanding something
    completely, except this post presents pleasant
    understanding yet.

  76. However, it is virtually all done with tongues rooted solidly in cheeks, and everyone has absolutely nothing but absolutely love for his or her friendly neighborhood scapegoat. The truth is, he is not just a pushover. He is basically that special variety of person strong enough to take all of that good natured ribbing for exactly what it is.

  77. I like to spend my free time by scanning various internet resources. Today I came across your website and I found it has some of the most practical and helpful information I’ve seen.

  78. Hey! awesome blog! I happen to be a daily visitor to your site (somewhat more like addict :P ) of this website. Just wanted to say I appreciate your blogs and am looking forward for more!

  79. order prednisolone 40mg for sale – gabapentin buy online cialis for men over 50

  80. cheap augmentin 375mg – augmentin 375mg price tadalafil brand

  81. Great blog here! Additionally your website rather a lot up very fast! What host are you the usage of? Can I get your associate link for your host? I desire my website loaded up as fast as yours lol

  82. sulfamethoxazole ca – purchase bactrim generic order generic viagra 50mg

  83. This is definitely a wonderful webpage, thanks a lot..

  84. brand cephalexin 250mg – erythromycin drug erythromycin 500mg brand

  85. order sildenafil 100mg without prescription – buy sildenafil 100mg sale ivermectin 1 cream

  86. generic rhinocort – order cialis 5mg generic cheap antabuse

  87. Hello there, You have done an incredible job. I will certainly digg it and personally recommend to my friends. I am sure they will be benefited from this site.

  88. What’s Happening i’m new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve found It positively useful and it has aided me out loads. I hope to contribute & help other users like its aided me. Great job.

  89. purchase ceftin online – buy cialis 10mg online cialis super active

  90. I had highly recommend this blog to my good friend, it’s so good

  91. acillin us – cipro 1000mg ca brand cialis

  92. I don’t normally comment on blogs.. But nice post! I just bookmarked your site

  93. buy amoxicillin 1000mg online cheap – azithromycin pills purchase vardenafil generic

  94. stromectol tablets – buy stromectol tablets order levitra 10mg for sale

  95. hey thanks for the info. appreciate the good work

  96. Nice read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing some research on that. And he just bought me lunch as I found it for him smile Therefore let me rephrase that: Thank you for lunch!

  97. This is really interesting, You’re a very skilled blogger. I have joined your feed and look forward to seeking more of your great post. Also, I’ve shared your web site in my social networks!

  98. tadalafil women – cheap modafinil 100mg purchase provigil pill

  99. This blog post is excellent, probably because of how well the subject was developed. I like some of the comments too.

  100. Thank you, I have just been searching for information about this topic for ages and yours is the greatest I’ve discovered till now. But, what about the conclusion? Are you sure about the source?

  101. These kind of posts are always inspiring and I prefer to read quality content so I happy to find many good point here in the post. writing is simply wonderful! thank you for the post

  102. Sweet blog! I found it while browsing on Yahoo News. Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Thank you

  103. Took me time to read all the comments, but I really enjoyed the article. It proved to be Very helpful to me and I am sure to all the commenters here It’s always nice when you can not only be informed, but also entertained I’m sure you had fun writing this article.

  104. deltasone 10mg oral – generic accutane 20mg isotretinoin 20mg oral

  105. buy generic amoxicillin 1000mg – buy sildenafil tablets buy sildenafil 150mg pills

  106. You write Formidable articles, keep up good work.

  107. Enjoyed studying this, very good stuff, thanks.

  108. cheap prednisolone generic – viagra 50mg price viagra 100mg ca

  109. A good web site with interesting content, that’s what I need. Thank you for making this web site, and I will be visiting again. Do you do newsletters? I Can’t find it.

  110. furosemide online buy – generic doxycycline 200mg stromectol for humans

  111. buy plaquenil 200mg for sale – buy chloroquine 250mg for sale purchase baricitinib

  112. metformin 500mg usa – amlodipine drug amlodipine 5mg pills

  113. vardenafil 20mg price – order clomiphene 50mg online cheap clomiphene pill

  114. বাংলা প্রশ্ন উত্তর সাইট তল্লাশি, আজই আপনার সমস্যা নিয়ে প্রশ্ন করুন , অভিজ্ঞ ব্যক্তিগন আপনার প্রশ্নের উত্তর দিয়ে সহযোগিতা করবে । তাছাড়াও অন্যাদের প্রশ্নের উত্তর দিয়ে, জিতে নিন আকর্ষণীয় পুরস্কার । তল্লাশিতে যেকোনো বিষয়ে প্রশ্ন করতে পারেন।।

  115. ventolin inhalator us – casino games free buy priligy 60mg generic

  116. synthroid without prescription – buy generic triamcinolone 10mg order hydroxychloroquine 200mg pill

  117. order cialis 10mg pills – order tadalafil without prescription purchase sildenafil without prescription

  118. I absolutely adore your site! You aggressive me as able-bodied as all the others actuality and your broiled PS is absolutely great!

  119. I have read so many posts about the blogger lovers however this post is really a good piece of writing, keep it up

  120. I cannot thank you more than enough for the blogposts on your website. I know you set a lot of time and energy into these and truly hope you know how deeply I appreciate it. I hope I’ll do a similar thing person sooner or later.

  121. Amazing article, cheers, I will bookmark you now.

  122. oral prednisone 10mg – prednisone online pharmacy order generic amoxicillin

  123. purchase diltiazem online cheap – cheap zithromax 500mg neurontin 800mg uk

  124. Only a smiling visitor here to share the love (:, btw outstanding style and design .

  125. brand furosemide 40mg – brand zyloprim 300mg order doxycycline pills

  126. whoah this blog is wonderful i really like reading your articles. Keep up the great paintings! You realize, a lot of people are hunting round for this info, you could help them greatly.

  127. I simply had to thank you so much again. I’m not certain what I would’ve used without the points provided by you directly on this subject matter. This was a real fearsome difficulty in my position, nevertheless taking note of a new expert strategy you handled it took me to weep for happiness. I am thankful for the work and as well , sincerely hope you recognize what a great job you are always getting into training the mediocre ones with the aid of your website. I know that you’ve never got to know any of us.

  128. My spouse and i were absolutely ecstatic Edward could carry out his investigation via the precious recommendations he was given out of your weblog. It is now and again perplexing to simply continually be offering secrets and techniques which usually many people may have been selling. We acknowledge we’ve got the website owner to thank for that. These explanations you have made, the straightforward website navigation, the friendships your site give support to foster – it’s all impressive, and it’s really helping our son and our family imagine that that matter is fun, and that is particularly vital. Thank you for the whole lot!

  129. cenforce cheap – ezetimibe 10mg cheap order domperidone

  130. Great post. I was checking constantly this blog and I’m impressed! Very useful info specifically the last part :) I care for such info much. I was looking for this certain information for a very long time. Thank you and good luck.

  131. Hi there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing several weeks of hard work due to no back up. Do you have any solutions to protect against hackers?

  132. Thanks for posting this. Looking for these resources :D

  133. Hello there, You have done an incredible job. I will certainly digg it and personally recommend to my friends. I am sure they will be benefited from this site.

  134. The sketch is tasteful, your authored material stylish.

  135. cheap viagra generic – viagra 150mg buy cialis for sale

  136. generic modafinil 200mg – prednisone 40mg tablet rhinocort cheap

  137. it is a really nice point of view. I usually meet people who rather say what they suppose others want to hear. Good and well written! I will come back to your site for sure!

  138. I like what you have to offer. Keep up the good work!

  139. I have read so many posts about the blogger lovers howeverthis post is really a good piece of writing, keep it up.

  140. A lot of thanks for your own effort on this site. Ellie loves working on investigation and it’s easy to understand why. We learn all of the compelling mode you give practical solutions through the web site and therefore attract participation from the others on that topic then our child is undoubtedly learning so much. Take pleasure in the rest of the year. You’re carrying out a dazzling job.

  141. Thanks for all of the effort on this blog. My aunt delights in making time for investigations and it’s really easy to see why. My partner and i hear all concerning the dynamic method you produce useful tips and hints by means of this web blog and in addition invigorate participation from others about this matter plus our own princess is undoubtedly being taught a great deal. Enjoy the remaining portion of the year. You have been doing a superb job.

  142. My wife and i got absolutely glad when Ervin could finish up his investigations while using the precious recommendations he had using your web site. It is now and again perplexing to simply possibly be handing out ideas which often some people have been making money from. Therefore we figure out we’ve got the writer to be grateful to because of that. All the illustrations you have made, the straightforward site menu, the relationships you help promote – it is everything astonishing, and it’s really helping our son and us reckon that the theme is awesome, and that is highly fundamental. Many thanks for the whole lot!

  143. I simply needed to thank you very much all over again. I am not sure the things I could possibly have gone through without the information shown by you concerning this industry. It previously was the horrifying setting in my position, but discovering the very well-written way you managed that took me to jump over happiness. I am just grateful for the work and thus expect you find out what a great job you have been getting into training many people by way of your website. I’m certain you haven’t encountered any of us.

  144. A cool post there mate ! Thank you for posting.

  145. accutane 40mg canada – purchase tetracycline for sale tetracycline 500mg sale

  146. Nice piece of info! May I reference part of this on my blog if I post a backlink to this webpage? Thx.

  147. I found your blog through google and I must say, this is probably one of the best well prepared articles I have come across in a long time. I have bookmarked your site for more posts.

 Leave a Reply

Name required. (Spam NEVER gets published before being trashed)

Email required. (Spam NEVER gets published before being trashed)

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>