I don’t know enough to judge whether this is scare-mongering or credible. The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries claims “New research from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries shows that continuing to ignore resource constraints may have substantial financial, political and social costs“.
The report itself and its evidence are contained in these PDFs:
- PDF: Resource constraints: sharing a finite world – Implications of Limits to Growth for the Actuarial Profession
- Accompanied by PDF: The evidence and scenarios for the future
I found this via New Scientist, which says:
“Aled Jones of Anglia Ruskin University in Cambridge, UK, and his colleagues drew together evidence about a wide range of environmental problems, from water shortages to atmospheric pollution to climate change. They plugged these into models used to predict the values of pension funds.
“Jones ran several scenarios, varying how quickly governments and industry responded to environmental problems. The results are published by the UK’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFA). In almost all cases the value of funds began to fall before 2100. In the worst-case scenario, where governments and markets did nothing, values dropped steeply from around 2020 and fell to zero by 2050.”